Though air travel is more popular than ever, the vast majority of people in the world have never been on a plane. As that dynamic is slowly changing and air travel is becoming more affordable, the environment stands to suffer.
Various researchers say as little as 5 to 10 percent of the global population fly in a given year. But things are changing. According to International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) estimates there were 3.7 billion global air passengers in 2016. Every year since has been a new record-breaker up until the 2020 COVID-19 Pandemic.
By 2035, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) predicts a rise to 7.2 billion. Given the damage flying does to the planet, that is food for thought.
It isn't just the CO2
Many estimates put the aviation’s share of global CO2 emissions at just above 2 percent. That is the figure the industry itself generally accepts. But according to Stefan Gössling, a professor at Sweden’s Lund and Linnaeus universities, that is only half the truth. Other aviation emissions such as nitrogen oxides (NOx), water vapour, particulates, contrails and cirrus changes have additional warming effects.
The aviation sector makes a contribution to global warming that is at least twice the effect of CO2 alone.
But the science behind the Global warming effect of aviation is unproven according to IATA spokesperson. Even if we accept the 2 percent emissions figure as a final, if only 5-10 percent of the world’s population flew last year, that relatively small group still accounted for a disproportionate chunk of global emissions.
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